While the winds have dropped to 145mph, the pressure has dropped to 918mb. Generally this indicates a strengthening of the storm. Hurricane force winds still remain out to 60 miles from the center with storm surge from 5 to 7 feet within that area. The Good news is that while it is still moving along at 17mph, it also is still tracking west. Nearly all computer models including the GFDL now indicate that the storm will likely stay to the south of Cancun. But, it is still to early to predict where it will land and what the effect will be on the Cancun area.

National Hurricane Center 3 Day Forecast Track.

The Governor of the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, which includes Cancun and the Riviera Maya, has issued a Yellow Alert for the citizens and tourists in the area. Schools will be closed Monday. The Cancun and Cozumel Airports will continue to operate until Monday. Empty planes are arriving this weekend to assist travelers in leaving the area.

From the National Hurricane Center:

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR. A
GENERAL TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH…240 KM/HR…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM.

Dean will likely go through eyewall cycles during the next few days
resulting in fluctuations in intensity. However…the peak
intensity is expected to occur in the northwestern Caribbean
between the Cayman Islands and Yucatan where the ocean heat content
is very high. Dean could become a category five at any time before
it reaches Yucatan.

The steering pattern has been very steady. Dean is moving toward the
west or 290 degrees at 15 knots steered by a high over the western
Atlantic and a low over Florida. The low is forecast to move
westward and be replaced by a strong ridge by all global models.
This pattern will keep Dean on a general west-northwest to west
track across the Caribbean Sea in the direction of Jamaica…the
Cayman Islands and Yucatan. This is consistent with track models
with the exception of the GFDL which insists on a track farther to
the north and just clipping the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

GFDL Model Run

While it is still to early to predict the track of Hurricane Dean, the people of Cancun and the Government of Mexico are preparing for the worse, and hoping for the best. I personally think the GFDL Model is the more likely of all the Computer Models out there. Regardless, we here at The Cancun Blog will do our best to keep people informed of the consequences whatever they may be. Susan, the Editor of The Cancun Blog, is also a Professional Photographer (Vista Imagery), and is ready to document events. And, of course, there will be discussions of events on the Message Forums of CancunMX.com and CancunAndRivieraMaya.com.

The Cancun Blog was created in part because of the misinformation from the media with regard to the effect Huricane Wilma had on Cancun. We all remember reading that Cancun was “dead”, and that “the beaches were just fine”. We will try to maintain accuracy in our reporting.